Currently, most thinking is around the threat of a massive volcanic eruption, However, a team of experts now argues that too much focus is on the risks of these rare volcanic explosions, while far too little attention is paid to the potential domino effects of moderate eruptions in key parts of the planet.
Researchers at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) have identified seven “pinch points” where clusters of relatively small but active volcanoes sit next to vital infrastructure that, if paralyzed, could have catastrophic global consequences.
These regions include volcano groups in North Africa, Taiwan, the North Atlantics and the northwestern United States.
“Even a minor eruption in one of the areas we identify could erupt enough ash or generate large enough tremors to disrupt networks that are central to global supply chains and financial systems,” said Dr. Lara Mani from CSER, lead author of the report.
At the moment, calculations are too skewed towards giant explosions or nightmare scenarios, when the more likely risks come from moderate events that disable major international communications, trade networks or transport hubs.”
Mani and colleagues say that smaller eruptions ranking up to 6 on the “volcanic explosivity index” – not the 7s and 8s that most people worry about – could easily produce ash clouds, mudflows and landslides that destroy undersea cables, leading to financial market shutdowns, or devastate crop yields, causing food shortages that lead to political turmoil.
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-minor-volcanic-eruptions-cascade-global.html