A recent commentary in Nature Climate Change, led by the Woodwell Climate Research Center and an international team of experts, has brought to light a significant issue in climate science: the inadequate representation of permafrost dynamics in climate models. This gap, largely due to funding limitations, is potentially skewing crucial climate predictions, which could have profound global impacts.
Permafrost Dynamics in Climate Models: Central to this concern are the emissions from thawing permafrost, a vast expanse of frozen ground in the northern hemisphere that holds twice as much carbon as the current atmospheric level. As this permafrost thaws due to human-induced climate warming, it releases significant amounts of carbon, contributing to further global warming. However, the complexity of this process is not sufficiently captured in most Earth system models (ESMs), including those used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Of the eleven ESMs referenced in the latest IPCC report, only two include any form of permafrost carbon cycling, and these models use oversimplified approximations that fail to accurately represent the multifaceted nature of permafrost thawing.
The underrepresentation of permafrost dynamics in climate models is largely attributed to the structure of scientific funding. Research funding typically operates on a three-year cycle, which is focused on new scientific questions. This time frame is often too short for the complex and extensive model development needed for an accurate representation of permafrost dynamics. Consequently, projects remain unfinished, and models lack the sophistication required to accurately predict the effects of permafrost thawing on the climate.
Christina Schaedel, the lead author of the report and a senior research scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center, emphasizes that accurately depicting permafrost dynamics in climate models is crucial for predicting where, how, and when the carbon stored in permafrost will be released. David Lawrence, co-leader of the Community Terrestrial Systems Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also highlights the challenges in developing complex models within the constraints of typical funding cycles.
To address the challenges associated with permafrost dynamics in climate models, the authors advocate for substantial, targeted funding. They suggest that millions of dollars per ESM are required to provide the necessary infrastructure and skilled personnel for comprehensive model development. Such investment would not only accelerate the integration of advanced permafrost dynamics into ESMs but also ensure that climate targets and carbon budgets are based on the best available science.
This commentary underscores the urgent need to align funding opportunities with the complexity of the climate challenges we face, particularly the critical role of permafrost in global climate dynamics. Only with adequate resources can the scientific community develop ESMs that accurately reflect the impact of permafrost thawing on our planet’s future climate.
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-earth-key-piece-future-climate.html