The Brazilian Amazon economy has traditionally been supported by activities like farming and mining, which lead to extensive deforestation. However, a new study from WRI Brasil and New Climate Economy suggests that economic growth in this region can continue without further deforestation.
This research introduces a sustainable economic model that contrasts sharply with the current practices by proposing deforestation-free growth. It forecasts that by 2050, adopting this cleaner and more equitable approach could enhance the Brazilian Amazon economy by at least BRL 40 billion ($8.2 billion) annually. Moreover, it would create thousands of new jobs for local and Indigenous communities who rely on the forest for their livelihoods, thereby not only boosting local employment but also aiding in the decarbonization of Brazil’s overall economy.
The need for this economic transformation is highlighted by the unsustainable nature of the existing model, where significant portions of the Amazon are cleared annually for agriculture and mining. These activities have led to the Amazon accounting for 67% of Brazil’s total emissions from land use and agriculture in 2021. If current trends continue, the region could lose an additional 59 million hectares by 2050—a scenario that would severely exacerbate global warming and disrupt regional rainfall patterns, pushing the Amazon past its ecological tipping point.
The envisioned change for the Brazilian Amazon economy would involve comprehensive shifts across several sectors. It would entail moving away from deforestation-driven agriculture to sustainable farming and livestock practices, heavily investing in the bioeconomy, and restoring degraded lands. Additionally, adopting low-carbon technologies in energy and transportation sectors would further economic growth without additional environmental degradation.
These proposed changes are expected to not only maintain but enhance the biodiversity and ecological functions of the Amazon. By preserving its role as a carbon sink, the Amazon can continue to support global climate objectives effectively. The model predicts a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, potentially decreasing the Amazon’s emissions by 94% and the country’s overall emissions by nearly 80% compared to current trajectories.
This new economic model also emphasizes the importance of equitable growth. It advocates for the protection and inclusion of local and Indigenous populations, who are integral to the forest’s sustainability. These communities are often the most affected by environmental degradation but seldom benefit from the economic activities causing it. The study suggests that a truly sustainable economic model would rectify this imbalance, distributing economic benefits more fairly and recognizing the pivotal role these communities play in forest conservation.
In conclusion, the transformation of the Brazilian Amazon economy proposed by WRI Brasil and New Climate Economy offers a vital blueprint for balancing economic development with environmental sustainability. This model not only foresees a substantial economic boost from embracing sustainability but also positions the Amazon as a cornerstone for national and global environmental efforts. Such an approach could serve as a paradigm for other regions worldwide, demonstrating that economic and environmental objectives need not be at odds but can be synergistically achieved.
https://www.wri.org/insights/zero-amazon-deforestation-can-grow-brazil-gdp