New study suggests a catastrophic supervolcano eruption could be much more likely than currently believed. Current knowledge about the likelihood of eruptions is based on the presence of liquid magma under a volcano, but new research warns “ eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found”.
“The concept of what is ‘eruptible’ needs to be re-evaluated”, according to the study author Martin Danisik from Curtin University in Australia.
They studied the Toba supervolcano which is believed to have erupted roughly 74,000 years ago, and some researchers believe the eruption released six billion tons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, leading global temperatures to drop by 15C for three years afterwards.
Scientists have suggested that the eruption may have caused human populations to rapidly shrink to just 3,000 to 10,000 individuals by destroying the vegetation and food sources they depended on.
The most recent super-eruption was from the supervolcano beneath Lake Taupo in New Zealand about 26,500 BC.
These volcanoes are known to have erupted multiple times, with intervals of tens of thousands of years between their big eruptions but it wasn’t know what happened to them during their semi-dormant periods.
“Gaining an understanding of those lengthy dormant periods will determine what we look for in young active supervolcanoes to help us predict future eruptions,” says Danisik.