The Earth is not on track to avoid the worst effects of climate change according to a new study. “Our plans are not adequate to meet the goal of limiting the Earth’s temperature increase to no more than 1.5℃ by 2050,” said lead author Holly Jean Buck of the University of Buffalo.
Residual emissions are an impediment to achieving the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. To limit the increase in Earth’s temperature, the United Nations panel of scientific advisors says that the world must reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions this century.
Residual emissions are those that remain after efforts to eliminate such emissions have been adopted. For example, even with great effort to eliminate all emissions, industries such as agriculture and shipping are likely to continue releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Residual emissions would need to be balanced by methods that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to meet net-zero goals. This means that any greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere are offset by those being removed.
According to Buck and her team, a better understanding of residual emissions is essential to achieving net-zero. They estimate that the average level of residual emissions by 2050 will be 18% of current emissions which is an amount that cannot easily be offset by removing carbon.
The first step is to develop clear projections for the amount of residual emissions. The amount, the source and the type of gas – carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases – need to be identified so that appropriate offsetting strategies can be implemented. These strategies include enhancing existing carbon sinks, which are anything that absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases. Naturally occurring carbon sinks are the ocean, forests and the soil.
“We can enhance carbon sinks,” said Buck. “We can plant trees, we can conserve land, we can engineer carbon removal, but it’s not enough to bring us to net-zero by 2050 with these projections of residual emissions.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-overlooked-residual-emissions-critical-climate.html