Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, delivered a crucial message at the Cop28 UN climate summit in Dubai: addressing climate change requires not only a phase-out of fossil fuels but also an active commitment to preserving nature. His warning was stark: even if fossil fuel use is eliminated, the destruction of natural habitats could push the planet past the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold agreed upon as safe for humanity.
Rockström stressed the importance of natural carbon sinks, such as forests, wetlands, and peatlands, in scientific models predicting how to keep global temperature rises below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These sinks are vital in absorbing excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. Without them, CO2 levels would rise more rapidly, exacerbating climate change.
A key focus of Rockström’s concern was the Amazon rainforest, which is under severe threat from logging, increased temperatures, and regional droughts. Scientists fear the rainforest is nearing a “tipping point” where it could irreversibly transition into savannah. Deforestation, currently at 17%, is a major contributor to this threat. Rockström warned that reaching 20% to 25% deforestation could accelerate this tipping point due to the combined effects of deforestation and high temperatures.
Similar issues are being faced by other major forest ecosystems around the world, such as the Congo basin in Africa, Southeast Asia’s forests, and the boreal forests, which are being degraded by pests like bark beetles and wildfires. Rockström emphasized that crossing ecological tipping points is a one-way journey, leading to irreversible changes in these ecosystems.
At the summit, Razan Al Mubarak, the president of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, underscored the necessity of phasing out fossil fuels. She pointed out that solely focusing on fossil fuel reduction is insufficient to mitigate climate change impacts; nature conservation is equally crucial.
Governments at Cop28 debated between phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels, with over 100 vulnerable countries advocating for an unconditional phase-out. Rich countries favored more lenient approaches, while major oil producers and fossil fuel-dependent nations either opposed these measures or demanded equitable funding for the transition from fossil fuels.
Rockström advocated for a global commitment to protect the remaining intact natural ecosystems. He highlighted the growing concerns among scientists about the unexpected responses of nature to climate change. Finally, he urged governments to listen to Indigenous peoples, whose experiences and knowledge align with scientific research, calling for a reevaluation of humanity’s relationship with nature.