In the face of escalating global temperatures, the pressing need to curb CO2 emissions has never been more acute. A pivotal study delineates a pathway to adhere to the Paris Agreement’s ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. It underscores the necessity for a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions, proposing that a substantial portion of existing fossil fuel resources—97% of coal, 81% of gas, and 71% of oil—must remain untouched.
Central to this proposition is the development of an integrated spatial assessment model, which crafts a global atlas of unburnable fossil fuels. This innovative tool integrates conventional oil resources’ estimates and locations with socio-environmental criteria, highlighting areas where oil extraction would be detrimental to biodiversity hotspots, endemic species, natural protected areas, urban locales, and territories of Indigenous Peoples in voluntary isolation.
The comprehensive analysis reveals that these critical areas house approximately 609 gigabarrels of conventional oil resources. Given the necessity to leave 1524 gigabarrels unextracted to maintain the global temperature increase below 1.5°C, the study suggests that these socio-environmentally sensitive regions can be completely safeguarded against oil extraction. This strategic selection of unburnable fossil fuels not only aligns with climate objectives but also amplifies collateral socio-environmental benefits, presenting a dual advantage.
The urgency to act is further underscored by the finite nature of the carbon budget, which is rapidly depleting under the current rate of CO2 emissions. The stark imbalance between the available carbon budget and the embedded CO2 emissions in global fossil fuel reserves calls for an immediate shift in energy consumption patterns and a reevaluation of unburnable fossil fuels. This shift is critical for aligning with the Paris Agreement’s goals, necessitating the exploration of alternative energy sources and the implementation of supply-side climate policies such as extraction moratoria and fossil fuel subsidy removals.
This paper’s methodology for identifying unburnable fossil fuels is not only a call to action but a blueprint for future conservation efforts. It uses socio-environmental impacts as a novel criterion for determining which fossil fuels should remain unextracted, thereby proposing a radical but necessary shift in how fossil fuel resources are valued and conserved. The approach provides a clear framework for preserving not only the planet’s biodiversity but also the rights and territories of Indigenous Peoples, marrying environmental conservation with social justice.
The implications of this study are profound, extending beyond academic circles to influence policy-making and the global discourse on climate change and fossil fuel consumption. By mapping out the spatial distribution of unburnable fossil fuels, the research offers a tangible plan for safeguarding the planet’s most vulnerable regions while steering the global community towards a more sustainable and equitable future. The atlas of unburnable oil resources serves as a crucial tool in the fight against climate change, offering a roadmap for preserving our planet for future generations.