Over the past three decades, an expanse of land substantially larger than India has transformed from humid to dryland, with drylands now constituting 40% of the Earth’s surface, excluding Antarctica. This shift towards global aridification has had profound implications, with the UN Science Policy Interface reporting that three-quarters of the world’s land experienced drier conditions over this period, a change likely to be permanent. This enduring global aridification has caused significant economic and environmental impacts, particularly evident in Africa, where approximately 12% of GDP was lost from 1990 to 2015 due to increasing aridity, with future projections even grimmer.
Ibrahim Thiaw, the executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), highlights that unlike temporary droughts, aridity represents a permanent alteration of the climate, irreversibly affecting vast regions globally. This transformation is contributing to a redefinition of life on Earth, with dry climates expected to persist and expand, worsening the conditions for agricultural productivity and water storage. By mid-century, it’s estimated that two-thirds of the world’s land will retain less water, exacerbating the global aridification process and threatening food security, as evidenced by projected significant reductions in maize yields in places like Kenya by 2050.
This global aridification also plays a critical role in geopolitical and economic dynamics, particularly in discussions at international forums like the recent UNCCD conference in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia, hosting the conference, is among the countries most affected by aridity and is keen on forging global agreements to mitigate land degradation and promote restoration efforts. However, the country has faced criticism for its hesitant approach to addressing the broader climate crisis, a primary driver of desertification.
The UNCCD’s chief scientist, Barron Orr, warns that the ongoing burning of fossil fuels is intensifying arid conditions across much of the planet, with potentially disastrous impacts on water access that could push ecosystems and communities to catastrophic tipping points. This scenario is exacerbated by poor agricultural practices, overextraction of water, soil erosion, and the destruction of natural habitats, all of which contribute to the acceleration of global aridification.
Amid these challenges, experts stress the urgency of governmental action. Mark Maslin, a professor at University College London, emphasizes the necessity of curbing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change and its aridification effects. Additionally, acknowledging the drying trend is crucial for implementing strategies to slow and adapt to these changes, including sustainable agriculture, effective water management, reforestation, and rewilding efforts. These measures are essential for combating the desertification of vital arable lands and securing the future of food production and ecological stability.
In conclusion, the phenomenon of global aridification is reshaping our world, deepening poverty, and amplifying challenges related to resource scarcity, water insecurity, and agricultural decline. The impacts are particularly severe for communities with limited adaptation capacities, facing heightened risks of food shortages, displacement, and forced migration. Addressing this issue is not only a matter of rectifying a profound injustice but also a global imperative requiring concerted and immediate action.